Brian Howey: Bayh’s endorsement of Hillary could have profound impact

By Brian Howey

WASHINGTON - The crowd was hushed and cameras began to click and whirl as Indiana’s former governor stepped to the podium. Sen. Evan Bayh first noted that his wife, Susan, was on hand. “That reduces the risk of disruptive phone calls,” he said in a poke at Republican candidate Rudy Giuliani, who famously interrupted a recent NRA speech to answer his wife’s call.

Bayh then endorsed Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid, which was hardly unexpected and could trigger a chain of events that will have an impact up and down the Indiana ballot in 2008.

The day after the New York Times wrote that U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton "has consolidated her early lead, showing steady strength," Bayh endorsed the "front runner.”

There is much speculation about Bayh's vice presidential chances with Sen. Clinton, given that he doesn’t really fit in with any other candidate in the field.

The most likely reaction to this week’s events is that Clinton's nomination is inevitable and will certainly draw former congressman Mike Sodrel into a fourth race against U.S. Rep. Baron Hill, as early as this coming week. In the 2nd CD, Army veteran and State Department intelligence analyst David "Chris" Minor is expected to challenge U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly, waging his campaign, as Howard County Republican Chairman Craig Dunn said, "from the sands of Iraq.” So two glaring holes in the Hoosier GOP lineup are now likely filled with Republicans banking that a Clinton nomination will help them in 2008.

Bayh will end up on everyone’s veep short list. Politico's Roger Simon wrote, “Standing there side by side behind the lectern they looked like ... a ticket.” Every time Bayh has appeared on an Indiana ballot, Democrats have picked up at least three seats in the Indiana House. This comes after five House incumbent Democrats – Bob Kuzman, Duane Cheney, Joe Micon, Dave Crooks and Jerry Denbo - have either resigned or decided against re-election. Bayh won the Indiana governorship despite the presidential ticket of George H.W. Bush and Hoosier Sen. Dan Quayle in 1988.

If Bayh were to join a Clinton ticket, could he help the Democrats carry Indiana? This is not out of the question when you consider that the Iraq War could become a huge GOP millstone. Clinton has taken a relatively moderate stance on Iraq, as opposed to her more liberal Democratic opponents. But even if Clinton-Bayh couldn’t carry Indiana, he would almost guarantee a tail wind at the back of the party’s gubernatorial nominee and might help salvage an Indiana House seat or two.

State Rep. Crooks created a stir on Aug. 13 when the Associated Press quoted him as saying of Clinton, “She is just so polarizing,” and added that she could cost Indiana Democrats three or four percentage points in ‘08.

Crooks told me on Wednesday that the “inevitability” factor has nothing to do with his retirement announced last week. He said that a Clinton-Bayh ticket “would correct the Hillary drag” and added once again, “It will be difficult for Hillary Clinton to win Indiana” even with Bayh on the ticket. “I have a hard time believing she’ll select Evan Bayh,” Crooks said.

I disagree. Former Virginia governor Mark Warner is now running for the Senate. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has a lot of baggage and in the case of a gender breaking nominee, a middle-aged white male might be a plus. Bayh is perfectly positioned as a former two-term governor of a red state, nestled among key Midwestern states of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa where Bayh campaigned briefly for president. He has a squeaky clean reputation, has articulated intelligence and family issues, is telegenic but won’t upstage Hillary, and, oh, by the way, he has a $10 million campaign war chest that no other veep hopeful will possess.

Bayh said of Clinton, “The next president of the United States must be experienced and seasoned, must be smart, and must be tough. I believe that Hillary Clinton is all of these things and more. I’ve had the privilege of traveling with her to Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. I’ve seen the respect with which she is held by leaders of other countries. I know she has the ability to reach out to other nations and to enlist them in our cause.”

Clinton was asked, “Do you think your colleague from Indiana is vice president material?” Laughter filled the room and Sen. Bayh leaned across Clinton and into the microphone. “Thank you all for coming,” he said to more applause. “It goes without saying that his record of public service is extraordinary,” Clinton said, “and I have the highest personal and professional regard for him.” No doubt that regard rose substantially when he opted out of the race last December.

A reporter asked Hillary to comment on a statement by President Bush that he believed she will win the Democratic nomination. Clinton reacted as if she had been asked to kiss a frog. Laughter again filled the room. “I’m just proud to have Evan Bayh’s endorsement,” she replied.

Column note: Mark Curry of The Howey Political Report’s Washington bureau contributed to this column. Howey is publisher of The Howey Political Report at www.howeypolitics.com.

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