Howey-Gauge Poll indicates big leads for Obama, Daniels and Carson

INDIANAPOLIS,  IN - U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, Indianapolis Councilman Andre Carson and Gov. Mitch Daniels are staking big leads in the first Howey-Gauge Poll conducted Feb. 16-17 and released today.  Obama has a 40-25 percent lead over U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton in the statewide Democratic May 6 primary. In the 7th Congressional District special election, Carson holds a 54-36 percent lead over State Rep. John Elrod in the March 11 special election. In the Indiana governor’s race, while Gov. Daniels’ re-elect number is a relatively low 41 percent, he has twin 23-percent leads over Democrats Jim Schellinger (54-31 percent) and Jill Long Thompson (56-33 percent). The Governor’s head-to-head numbers were largely driven by 38 percent of Hoosiers saying taxes are the top issue. Any single issue over 30 percent is considered "a hot issue," said Howey-Gauge Pollster Michael Davis, president of Gauge Market Research. "Gov. Daniels is finding traction on the top three issues: taxes, jobs and education."

The poll includes 500 likely registered voters based on voter files and up-to-date U.S. Census data. The statewide poll has a 4.5 percent margin of error, while the 7th CD breakout of 300 likely registered voters has a 5.7 percent error margin. In the 7th CD, there is a poll ratio of 41/24 Democrat to Republican in party affiliation and 28 percent are African-American.

The Obama-Clinton segment of the poll is the first Indiana poll conducted on the bitterly contested presidential race that may find Indiana front stage center leading into the May 6 primary. Obama has huge leads over Clinton among younger voters (42-16 percent), males (40-26 percent), females (39-23 percent), African-Americans (68-3 percent) and white voters (34-30 percent).

"White females are the only demographic breakdown in which Hillary Clinton leads," said Davis, "and that is a narrow 31-29 percent."

The 36 percent of undecided voters is high, but HPI Publisher Brian A. Howey says that this is because U.S. Evan Bayh has endorsed Clinton and many Democrats hope he is on the national ticket. "The primary is still 11 weeks away and that size of undecided voters is typical," said Davis. In the GOP race, U.S. Sen. John McCain has a 52-23 percent lead over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and leads in virtually all categories.

Howey notes that while Bayh, House Speaker B. Patrick Bauer, Marion County Sheriff Frank Anderson and a number of congressional district party chairs and former officeholders are backing Clinton, a number of state legislators from Northwest Indiana, Indianapolis, South Bend and Evansville are backing Obama. "These legislators have their ears close to the ground with all the Third House meetings they attend. They are sensing Obama’s momentum."

In the 7th CD, Carson has 93 percent name recognition and his favorable/unfavorable rating stands at 60/3 percent among Democrats. "That ratio is very strong," Davis said. Elrod has 72 percent name ID and his favorable/unfavorables stand at 27-11 percent. "Jon Elrod needs to get up on TV fast to have any shot at the special election," said Howey. Carson has been running TV ads for the past three weeks.

In the gubernatorial race, the two Democrats are suffering from low name ID and relative silence on the issues of taxes and jobs.

The Indiana right track/wrong track question stood at 37/40 percent, normally a bad omen for incumbents. But Schellinger’s total awareness is a mere 21 percent and only 8 percent have a hard opinion of him. Said Davis, "77 percent of self-identified Democratic voters do not yet recognize the name of Jim Schellinger. It is not possible to draw a statistically valid conclusion from most demographic cross tabulations of voters opinion of Schellinger due to the low percentage of name recognition." The Indianapolis market is the only place that Schellinger has name recognition higher than 10 percent. Thompson’s total awareness is 42 percent, but hard opinion recognition stands at a low 22 percent. "She has the highest favorable to unfavorable ratio of the three gubernatorial candidates," Davis explained. "But 60 percent of self-identified Democratic voters do not yet recognize the name of Jill Long Thompson."

Daniels’ fav/unfavs stood at 52/23 percent, compared to 17/5 percent for Jill Long Thompson and 6/2 percent for Schellinger. While Gov. Daniels re-elect is only 41 percent statewide, it is 48 percent in the 7th CD, possibly boosted by his property tax reform plan and the help he extended to the family after U.S. Rep. Julia Carson died. A number of family members thanked the Governor during her televised funeral on Dec. 22.

Howey explained, "Since Oct. 23 he has announced his cap & cut tax reform plan, received the Kernan-Shepard Commission report, given his State of the State address and participated in more than 15 town hall meetings. His press coverage has been generally favorable and the tax reforms are advancing in the House and Senate with huge bipartisan margins. That explains why his re-elect is low in this era of anti-incumbency and yet he does well head-to-head with the two Democratic candidates who have been mostly absent from the property tax debate and aren’t very famous."

Another element to that is the "agent of change" notion that Obama is advancing while winning 10 primaries and caucuses in a row. Howey notes that in the presidential cross tabulations, 38 percent of those favoring Gov. Daniels re-election are also supporting Obama. "Even though the Governor is an incumbent, he has certainly been an agent of change whether you like it or not," Howey explained.

NOTE: The Howey-Gauge Poll was conducted by Gauge Market Research on behalf of Howey Politics Indiana.  Three additional polls will be released (April, September and October) leading up to the November 2008 elections.

Brian A. Howey publishes Howey Politics Indiana, a nonpartisan political newsletter and website at www.howeypolitics.com.  He has covered Indiana politics since 1985 and established HPI in 1994. The Washington Post recently cited Howey as Indiana’s Most Influential Political Writer in its ranking of political coverage for each state.

Michael R. Davis is President of Gauge Market Research, an Indiana polling company.  Michael is recognized as a leading analyst within the political and business communities, both in Indiana and nationally. Gauge Market Research clients include political candidates, advocacy organizations and businesses who are interested in public opinion polling, demographic trends and customer satisfaction surveys.

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