Brian Howey: Evan Bayh's Hillary predicament

By Brian Howey

INDIANAPOLIS, IN  – One of those theoretical questions that often simmers to the top of Indiana political stew is whether U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh can help the Democrats carry Indiana in the presidential race. The assumption, through Super Tuesday, was that this key test would emerge as a distinct question when Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton sorted through her short list of veep candidates in July and August.

But the question has a new time line and a new urgency these days. U.S. Sen. Barack Obama has surged into the status of front runner in the presidential race, making Indiana's May 6 primary relevant.  Sen. Bayh may have to spend significant personal political capital for Clinton months earlier as the Indiana's May 6 primary may be a determining factor in who wins the nomination.

Last fall, Clinton carrying Indiana seemed doable, particularly if Bayh was on the ticket. But in the first statewide Howey-Gauge Poll (Feb. 17-18, 500 likely registered voters, +/-4.5 percent), Obama has a 40-25 percent lead over Clinton in Indiana.

According to pollster Michael Davis of Gauge Market Research, Obama leads almost every category: younger voters (42-16 percent), males (40-26 percent), females (39-23 percent), African-Americans (68-3 percent) and white voters (34-30 percent).  "White females are the only demographic breakdown in which Hillary Clinton leads," said Davis, "and that is a narrow 31-29 percent."

While Bayh, House Speaker B. Patrick Bauer, Marion County Sheriff Frank Anderson and a number of congressional district party chairs and former officeholders are backing Clinton, a growing group of state legislators from Northwest Indiana, Indianapolis, South Bend and Evansville are backing Obama. These legislators have their ears close to the ground with all the Third House meetings they attend.  They are sensing Obama's momentum.

When Bayh endorsed Sen. Clinton last Sept. 23, it looked like a sound investment. Bayh's endorsement was seen as a momentum builder. The day before, Sen. Clinton appeared on the five major Sunday morning TV news shows.  The New York Times was reporting that she "has consolidated her early lead, showing steady strength." The Times and Washington Post characterized a Clinton nomination as  "inevitable." My analysis on Sept. 27 was that Bayh's endorsement was akin to dropping a "fizzy in the water" that "could trigger a chain of events that will have an impact up and down the Indiana ballot in 2008."

Rep. Dave Crooks' endorsement of Obama prompted memories of his Aug. 13 Associated Press interview in which he said of Clinton, "She is just so polarizing" and suggested her nomination could cost Indiana Democrats "3 to 4 percent." I deemed it the "Hillary drag," but also quoted Crooks as saying Bayh would "correct" the drag. He added, "I have a hard time believing she'll select Evan Bayh."

Deedee Benkie, the 9th CD Republican vice chair, said Sen. Clinton is "despised" in southeastern Indiana, where U.S. Rep. Baron Hill has yet to endorse a presidential candidate. She said last summer that Larry Bird could be her veep; Damon Bailey could run the campaign and Bobby Plump could "give her a last shot" and she would still lose the Bloody 9th.

Former 9/11 Commissioner and congressman Tim Roemer of Mishawaka is backing Obama. He says it was a "tough choice, but explained, "I think he's more electable than Sen. Clinton in states like Indiana. He's more appealing to our voters on economic issues and he has shown at his rallies a tendency not to throw red meat to Democratic primary voters, but to mention that we need to bring Republicans and Democrats together.

"The last reason, and maybe one of the most important, is that he may be able to achieve more than Sen. Clinton. I think we have such a divisive and polarizing election and although we may win with Sen. Clinton, it would be very difficult to get some of the bigger ideas through Congress and we have a host of problems."

Can Obama win the 2nd CD and Indiana? "Indiana is truly in the crossroads and the crosshairs," Roemer said. " I think he will bring both Democrats, primary voters, independents and some Republicans to the table and into the voting booth in May. I even think we might have the opportunity to make a red state, a purple or blue in November."

As for Bayh, if Clinton can win Ohio or Texas on March 4, we'll have a real hot primary in Indiana for the first time since 1968.  He will be ready to stump for Clinton, who will need his help not only here, but also in Ohio. In the days prior to Clinton's New Hampshire victory, Bayh activated the network he built for his own presidential campaign to help the former first lady. "I think this is going to be close all the way to the end," Bayh said earlier this month. "Each of them brings something special to the table. But at this particular moment, I look for seasoning and experience and toughness. I think she has that due to her life experiences."

Whether the decision might come down to super delegates such as him, Bayh said, "Whoever gets the most votes nationwide should get the nomination."

            Howey is publisher of Howey Politics Indiana at www.howeypolitics.com

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