Brian Howey: Quayle, Bayh and the veepstakes revisited

By Brian Howey

      INDIANAPOLIS - As I worked the news desk at the Elkhart Truth on a Saturday night in August 1988, I penned the bold headline: “Quayle awaits GOP promotion.” When I returned to the newsroom the following Monday, the ridicule machine was in high gear. Vice President Quayle? The owner, John Dille, stopped by and ribbed me. “You must be kidding?” he said.

      During the Sunday sandwiched in between, Quayle appeared on ABC’s This Week with David Brinkley at the invitation of George Will. Quayle appeared on program (from Evansville) with Bob Dole and Jack Kemp, who would all eventually be winners of the veepstakes. In his book, “Standing Firm,” Quayle explained, “The vice presidency isn’t an office you can campaign for. In fact, any demonstration of eagerness for it is more likely to hurt than help.”

      Quayle said he tried “as subtly as I could to make it clear I was both qualified and available.” He gave more speeches, made himself available to the press more than usual, and took stances on key issues.

      Quayle’s decision to do the Brinkley show was a “spur of the moment” decision because it violated his own “low-profile” strategy. But, ultimately, it paid off. Bush aide Bob Kimmitt showed Vice President George H.W. Bush the tape of the show. “I’m sure it was a factor that helped to make up his mind,” Quayle reflected.

      It’s easy to get the sense that U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh has read “The Short List” chapter in Quayle’s book. Bayh laughs and says the speculation is “good for my ego.”

      Since the May primary when he helped Hillary Clinton win a narrow victory over Barack Obama here in Indiana, Bayh has played his cards close to the vest. He’s been somewhat subterranean until he surfaced with Obama, Sam Nunn and other national security experts at Purdue University a couple weeks ago. To ask the Bayh apparatus any question about the veepstakes is to be met with stony silence and looks that seem to convey, “Why would you even ask? Shhhhhhh. Shhsh!”

      The Bayh folks express disdain over all the veepstakes coverage when, in fact, if news hounds weren’t asking they would be alarmed. When Howey Politics Indiana ran a photo of Bayh looking at his watch during the Obama event at Purdue, the Bayh apparatus choked. They obviously had images of HW’s infamous moment when he was caught glancing at his watch during one of his debates with Bill Clinton. But if Obama judges Bayh’s performance at the Purdue forum, as HW judged Quayle’s performance on Brinkley’s show in 1988, Bayh comes off ... vice presidentially. He passed that screen test. As for his watch, he should take it off between now and The Announcement, and if he ascends, shouldn’t put it on until November 5.

      These days, the Indiana political establishment is caught up in the Bayh moment. If Obama chooses Bayh, it could dramatically transform not only the presidential race, but Indiana gubernatorial, congressional and House races. Bayh has had long coattails in Indiana. At the end of last week, he was the hot topic, with the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza placing him on the veepstakes pole position. By Tuesday, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine was the hot topic in the Post. Keep in mind the national punditry has gotten just about everything wrong prior to the crucial turns of this campaign. They do not really have any idea what the Obamas and vetters like Caroline Kennedy are really thinking. When I asked a Bayh/Obama source if the pundits really know what they’re talking about, the answer was a flat “no.”

      Both Obama and McCain have kept a lid on any knowledgeable speculation.

      With Kaine and Bayh, they have to be looking at the Electoral College maps, where Bayh could bring in 11 votes from Indiana, and Kaine 13 from Virginia. The pundits seem to be saying that Kaine could help bring in 15 more in North Carolina. The Bayh folks could point out that the Hoosier senator will translate well in the Great American Midwest, where modern elections are won and lost: in Ohio (20), Michigan (17), and Iowa (7) with his Midwestern roots as well as next door Kentucky (8). Bayh served two terms as governor (Kaine is in his first term) and as our analysis pointed out last week, his Senate career has found Bayh delving deep into Armed Services issues relating to combat troop safety.

      Back at the Truth newsroom, the day after Quayle’s ascendancy, I got a call from a national reporter who literally asked, “Do you have any dirt on Dan Quayle?” I told him that I’ve never swept the floors in the Quayle house.

      The national press - possessing towering egos matched only by the politicians - hates to be fooled and surprised. Bayh’s inclusion on the current “short list” should give them all ample time to learn of the Evan Bayh story, which you can read about at www.howeypolitics.com.

      When people ask me if Evan Bayh will be The Chosen One, my standard answer is that there are logical reasons that amply support such ascension, but to tell you the truth, how in the heck would I know? 

Howey is publisher of Howey Politics Indiana at www.howeypolitics.com.

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