Going for Barack in Southern Indiana’s river corridor

By Brian Howey

NASHVILLE, Ind. - During the Clinton-Obama Indiana primary drama, I was struck at the number of Democrats, particularly in Southern Indiana, who said that the junior Illinois senator would not run well there. Perry County's Dean Boerste told me at the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner that he would be surprised if Obama could get more than 30 percent there; Obama lost to Clinton 65-35 percent.

Traditionally, the 18 Ohio and Wabash river counties are essential to any Democrat winning statewide. Or, as 8th CD Chairman Anthony Long explained, "Southern Indiana has a rich tradition of supporting Democrats."

The undercurrent with Barack Obama is race. But it would be unfair to paint Southern Indiana as racist. Three African-American statewide candidates - Attorney General Pamela Carter in 1992, Treasurer Cleo Washington in 1998 and Attorney General Karen Freeman-Wilson - all won pluralities in river counties. Carter was able to do it in 1992 despite the fact that her Republican opponent, Timothy Bookwalter, appeared in numerous small towns and cities carrying a full-sized cardboard cutout of Carter. It was widely perceived as overt racism.

In 1998, Washington, a state senator from South Bend running for state treasurer, won Crawford, Perry, Floyd, Gibson, Spencer, Jefferson, Switzerland, Vermillion, Sullivan and Vigo counties. He lost several other counties by a handful of votes.

In 2000, Attorney General Freeman-Wilson, who was appointed by Gov. Frank O'Bannon after Jeff Modisett resigned, lost her bid for a full term. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce ran an ad campaign against her that was perceived as race baiting. It noted that she had been a "judge from Gary." But Freeman-Wilson did not lose her race to Republican Steve Carter in the river corridor. She carried Crawford, Perry, Spencer, Harrison, Warrick, Floyd, Jefferson, Knox, Posey, Sullivan, Switzerland, Vandburgh, Vigo, and Vermillion counties, losing Warrick County by 35 votes.

In presidential races, Bill Clinton carried almost the entire river corridor (Vermillion to Switzerland) with the exception of Dearborn and Ohio counties. In his 1996 re-elect, Clinton carried all the counties he won in 1992 with the exception of Harrison County (ironically, O'Bannon's home county).

The Democratic presidential vice grip on the river corridor came to a halt in 2000 when George W. Bush won Clark, Spencer, Sullivan, Switzerland, Vanderburgh, Jefferson, Posey, Crawford, Gibson, Vigo, Warrick and Washington counties. In 2004, Bush carried the entire river corridor, often with pluralities in the 58-63 percent range.

Two elections make the beginning of a trend. The fact that Obama carried none of the river counties against Hillary Clinton seemed to portend that the trend would continue. The margins were startling: Obama carried only 25 percent of the vote in Dearborn, Ohio and Switzerland counties, 27 percent in Crawford and 28 percent in Harrison. The rest of the corridor wasn't much better: 34 percent in Jefferson, Clark 32 percent, Floyd 34 percent, Perry 35 percent, Spencer 39 percent, Warrick 41 percent, Posey 44 percent, Gibson 33 percent, Knox 34 percent, Sullivan 33 percent, Vigo 41 percent and Vermillion 34 percent.

His best showing came in Evansville and Vanderburgh County, where he drew 8,000 at an April 22 Roberts Stadium rally, with 48 percent. The Obamas had other campaign events in Terre Haute and the Clark-Floyd metro area.

Yet, in an Aug. 16-18 SurveyUSA poll, Obama trailed John McCain by only 48-44 percent in Southern Indiana, compared to 61-22 percent in Central Indiana outside of the Indianapolis metro.

Some think the huge Hillary Clinton pluralities can be traced to the fact that she, the former president and Chelsea Clinton campaigned in more than 100 Indiana cities, including a dozen in the river corridor. Another huge factor was Sen. Bayh, a Vigo County native whose endorsement was crucial to Clinton. Bayh has carried big pluralities in these counties in his five elections for secretary of state, governor and the U.S. Senate. A smaller percentage could be traced to the racial dynamic.

Former Indiana Democratic chairman Robin Winston acknowledged the "Obama can't win" dynamic in river country. "If people keep saying it, it will be a disadvantage," he said.

Boerste explained, "I feel that Obama's campaign is reaching out to the Clinton supporters and that it is very organized here in Indiana. I hear comments from Clinton supporters daily on their commitment to Senator Obama."

Former House Speaker John Gregg of Knox County believes Obama will win there. "He carries it because he's got staff in these areas, as well as $4 a gallon gas, recession and war. The Obama folks have an unbelievable work ethic. I've attended meetings all over Southwestern Indiana that they've held. They're here to win, not for show."

Long, who lives in Warrick County, explained, "The abysmal record of the Bush administration and the sorry state of our economy will cause many of the formerly 'one issue' voters to rethink their positions on some traditional Republican issues."

Long acknowledged the racial factor. "I believe that race will probably be a consideration for hopefully only a small number of voters," he said. "These voters we cannot get. We must simply pray for them and move on."

Howey is publisher of Howey Politics Indiana at www.howeypolitics.com

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