Brian Howey: Barack loses his mojo on high ground

On this Hoosier high ground, the Democratic presidential nominee stooped down to take a swipe at the latest American fad - Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin. “I know the governor of Alaska has been saying she’s change, and that’s great, She’s a skillful politician,” Obama said. “But, you know, when you’ve been taking all these earmarks when it’s convenient, and then suddenly you’re the champion anti-earmark person, that’s not change. Come on! I mean, words mean something, you can’t just make stuff up.”

 

Clearly, less than two weeks after Obama passed on Hillary Clinton to be his running mate, he is now flat-footed.  Sarah is inside his head. Ticket toppers aren’t supposed to hunt veeps.

 

Just a month ago, I predicted it was unlikely that the historic and disciplined Obama campaign would lose its way as it heads into the critical home stretch. But the final two weeks of the veepstakes - played out vividly here in Indiana - was almost too cute. The secret text message went out at - 3 a.m. - leaving Hillary Clinton (and Evan Bayh) on the sidelines.

 

Then came the Democratic Convention when Bill and Hillary Clinton vividly endorsed the Obama campaign. Next was the speech of the century. But the more I reflect on what was supposed to be the Denver masterpiece, the more it seems that Obama descended from the lofty heights he used to derail Hillary, and became just another politician.

 

Quick, think to yourself two weeks later, what was the defining moment of that speech? Where is the “I have a dream” catch phrase?  There wasn’t one.

 

About 13 hours later Sarah Palin walked out of the mist and into a Dayton basketball arena. Obama’s bounce moment was prematurely clipped in Ohio, first by Hurricane Sarah, and then during the following weekend with Hurricane Gustav. A week later, Palin’s Republican National Convention speech eclipsed the one John McCain would give 24 hours later. It seemed to capture the quote that is driving the Obama campaign nuts. “This election is not about issues,” said McCain Campaign Manager Rick Davis. “This election is about a composite view of what people take away from these candidates.”  It’s becoming a race of personalities.

 

Even more ironic is that with cheering Republicans in the twin cities, McCain and Palin essentially ended up taking swings at the Bush-Cheney Republican legacy that was supposed to be the millstone around the party’s neck. The Republicans didn’t get religion; they got change. Now they talk about things like celebrity and lipstick on a pig instead of energy and healthcare.

 

In Sarah Palin, there finally is a personality that steals Barack Obama’s thunder.  It is exacerbated by Obama’s decision not to accept federal election funding.  Earlier this week, there were near-hysterical stories of the campaign pressing its financiers to step it up.

 

From the time Obama left Elkhart and Portage with apparent command and laudable discipline for keeping the veepstakes secret -- to Wednesday in Norfolk where he threw his hands up and accused the media of “lies, outrage and swift boat politics” -- we have witnessed the loss of O-mojo.

 

It was almost comical that the crux of his emotion came with his “lipstick on a pig” remark, playing off Palin’s convention pit bull classic zinger. “See, it would be funny, but the news media decided that would be the lead story yesterday,” said an exasperated Obama. “This happens every election cycle. Every four years, this is what we do. This is what they want to spend two of the last 55 days talking about. Enough! These are serious times and they call for a serious debate. Spare me all the phony outrage. Spare me all the phony talk about change.”

 

Then came Palin’s visit to Virginia on Wednesday where she and McCain drew 23,000 people. It was the biggest turnout for the GOP ticket and it came in a state where Gov. Tim Kaine had been another vanquished veepster. Should Palin turn up in Bayh Country, don’t think for a moment there won’t be a similar crowd.

 

Obama decided to go for Joe Biden’s “stature,” sidestepping Kaine’s Virginia 13 Electoral College votes and Bayh’s Indiana 11 Electoral College votes that might have been delivered.  If Hillary had been added to the ticket, could this have inoculated him against the Palin dynamic?

 

The day following Obama’s DNC speech, the Howey-Gauge Poll had McCain leading in Indiana 45-43 percent. Those polled certainly took into account Palin’s ascendancy, but not the GOP bounce. It showed that 34 percent of Hillary’s Hoosier supporters were going to vote for McCain, but that was before the Indiana delegates began fanning out to their communities to try and convert the Clintonites. U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth said, “I don’t think you’ll see that many” Hillary supporters defecting in November.

 

Is there a silver lining for Obama? There are still 54 days left. Any campaign can expect a bad week and they hope it comes early.  Obama’s bad week is coming moderately late, but there’s still time.

 

Howey is publisher of Howey Politics Indiana at www.howeypolitics.com